# Soccer Games Today

> Soccer scores, results, predictions and guides. English-language site. Predictions come from a published Elo + Poisson model; see https://todayssoccergames.com/methodology.

Predictions are probabilistic estimates for information and entertainment, not betting advice.

## Match Analysis & Predictions

- [Barcelona vs Aston Villa Prediction and Match Analysis](https://todayssoccergames.com/analysis/barcelona-vs-aston-villa-prediction): The Soccer Games Today Barcelona vs Aston Villa prediction model projects a home victory, with a most probable scoreline of two goals to nil based on Elo ratings.

## Guides

- [What Is xG? Expected Goals Explained for Fans](https://todayssoccergames.com/guides/what-is-xg-expected-goals-explained): Expected goals explained: xG estimates how likely a shot is to become a goal, from 0 to 1, based on factors like distance and angle. Adding a team's shot values shows how many goals it should have scored.
- [How to Predict Soccer Scores: A Step-by-Step Method](https://todayssoccergames.com/guides/how-to-predict-soccer-scores): To predict soccer scores, start with average goals and home advantage, adjust for each team's attack and defence, then check injuries and motivation. Pick the likeliest scoreline, not the biggest win.
- [How the New Champions League Format Works (36 Teams)](https://todayssoccergames.com/guides/how-the-new-champions-league-format-works): The new Champions League format puts 36 clubs in one league table. Each plays eight different opponents; the top eight reach the last 16, 9th-24th enter a two-leg play-off, and the rest are out.
- [Home Advantage in Soccer: How Big Is It Really?](https://todayssoccergames.com/guides/home-advantage-in-soccer-how-big-is-it): Home advantage in soccer is real but modest: hosts win clearly more often than visitors in top leagues. It is worth roughly a third of a goal per game and varies by league, club and era.
- [Elo Ratings in Soccer: How They Work](https://todayssoccergames.com/guides/elo-ratings-in-soccer-explained): Elo ratings in soccer give every team a number that rises after wins and falls after losses. The size of the change depends on the opponent's rating, so beating a strong team earns more than beating a weak one.

## Optional

- [Methodology](https://todayssoccergames.com/methodology): how predictions are produced and graded
- [Editorial policy](https://todayssoccergames.com/editorial-policy): sourcing and corrections
- [Full content for LLMs](https://todayssoccergames.com/llms-full.txt)